"Adaptation Science"

Seminar leader: Lisa Goddard, International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Guidelines for Constructing Climate Scenarios (2011), Mote et al.

Reliance on climate modeling for research and decision-making has increased. Those that use climate model outputs often ask (1) How best can scientists understand and characterize uncertainty? And (2) What are some key considerations when selecting and combining climate model outputs to generate scenarios? Answering these questions leads to a helpful set of guidelines set forth by the authors, for creating and applying climate scenarios. They identify and explain three sources of uncertainty, including imperfect knowledge of (1) the drivers of change, or the sources and sinks of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols; (2) the response of the climate system to those drivers; and (3) how unforced variability can mask the forced response to drivers. They then discuss selection and combination of models, concluding that it’s best to avoid culling or weighting models based on credibility, and rather, one should sample a large array of available information. Finally, the authors propose seven guidelines for those who wish to use climate model scenarios for impact or diagnostic research.

Hell and High Water: Practice-Relevant Adaptation Science (2013), Moss et al.

Climate adaptation improves preparedness and is an important strategy, alongside mitigation, for climate risk management. However, there is a need for increased development of science to correct maladaptation and support societal adaptation to climate change, drawing from integrated and interdisciplinary insights and experience. The authors propose an integrated approach to research, and describe adaptation science research needed to understand decision processes and information requirements, identify vulnerabilities, improve foresight about climate risks and other stressors, and understand barriers and options for adaptation. For each of these categories, they outline the specific steps needed in order to improve upon current systems.